Enhancing the Tesla Cybercab Prototype

The Unfulfilled Promises of Elon Musk and Tesla

Tesla CEO Elon Musk could have taken the stage at last night’s “We, Robot” event and put a lot of fears to rest.

He could have released comprehensive safety data for the company’s Full Self-Driving feature that showed real progress for the driver-assist feature, contradicting all the crowdsourced data that’s out there making FSD look truly awful.

He could have announced that the Cybercab, a sleek little two-seater with butterfly-wing doors, would be a geofenced, Level 4, fleet-owned vehicle, operating in a few select markets with impressive-looking margins.

He could have provided an ounce of detail about the Cybercab’s technology stack, including its sensors, vision system, and onboard processing power. And he could have shocked the industry and surprised many of his doubters by embracing lidar, the laser sensor that serves as a crucial redundant system for every other driverless vehicle on Earth.

The Missed Opportunities

But he did none of those things. Instead, he put on what arguably looked like a great show, complete with fake movie posters, a ton of delicious-looking food, and robot bartenders. And he fell back on the same old, tired promises of a fully autonomous vehicle that was “just two years away.”

We’ve been down this road before. Many times.

The Reality of Autonomous Driving

“Prototype hardware that works in a limited demo is cool, interesting, and fine to comment on,” Phil Koopman, an AV expert from Carnegie Mellon, wrote in his newsletter this morning. “But it is not production, and hardware is not the limit to autonomous vehicles. Software is the long pole in the tent.”

At first glance, it would seem as if the event did the trick. There were plenty of Tesla fans who were thoroughly impressed by what they saw last night and ready to declare that it was “game over” for every other player in the field. The Robovan wowed many with its Art Deco styling. And positive vibes extended to the company’s most bullish investors, some of whom participated in Musk’s theme park experience and came away forever altered.

Market Reactions and Concerns

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who was in attendance, dismissed any stock decline in the aftermath of the event — Tesla was trading down by nearly 9 points in early trading Friday — as a “knee-jerk reaction” that would eventually correct itself. “We strongly disagree with the notion that last night was a disappointment,” he wrote Friday, “as we would argue the opposite seeing Cybercab with our own eyes and the massive improvements in Optimus which we interacted with throughout…

Challenges Ahead for Tesla

• Regulatory approval. Tesla will need to obtain a permit from the California DMV to operate fully driverless vehicles on public roads. And in order to do that, it will need to demonstrate that its vehicles can operate safely — which so far, the company has not done. And to produce a completely steering wheel-less Cybercab will require waivers from the federal government. That is a multi-month process, and success is far from guaranteed.
• Liability. What happens when a driverless Tesla crashes? Who takes legal responsibility?
• Remote assistance. What happens when a driverless Tesla gets stuck somewhere? Or becomes disabled?
• Fleet maintenance. Tesla briefly showed an image of a snake-like robot vacuum cleaning some crumbs off the backseat of the Cybercab. But fleet maintenance is a lot more involved.
• Emergency detection. Other robotaxi companies have struggled to react to emergency vehicles, unexpected detours, and other edge cases that could arise.

This is just scratching the surface

The Future of Tesla and Autonomous Driving

This is just scratching the surface. Kyle Vogt, the ex-CEO of Cruise, posted on X a pretty thorough list of his own questions for Tesla, most of which went completely unanswered. And this coming from a guy who was pushed out of his own company for screwing up the response to one of those hard-to-predict edge cases.

Conclusion

It seems unlikely that Musk will meet a similar fate as Vogt, despite fumbling the ball so badly. We’ve already seen the kinds of death and destruction that have resulted from his company’s aggressive push into autonomous technology. And so far, he’s been successful in avoiding those consequences.

FAQs

Q: Will Tesla be able to overcome the regulatory hurdles for fully autonomous driving?

A: Tesla will need to navigate the complex regulatory landscape to prove the safety and viability of its driverless vehicles.

Q: What challenges does Tesla face in terms of liability for autonomous driving accidents?

A: Determining legal responsibility in the event of driverless Tesla crashes remains a significant unresolved issue for the company.

Credit: www.theverge.com